There, I said it. Why would an otherwise intelligent person say that global warming is anything less than the most serious issue man has ever faced? I say it because people are freakin' stupid. And by stupid people, I purposefully include scientists who have dedicated their lives to the study of science. Hypotheses tested time and again is what gives us the ability to predict and act on those predictions. So far with global scale weather systems we've coerced massaged data into looking like what we've experienced in the past, we have no definitive ability to predict future weather. Don't get me wrong, I have great admiration for science, it is what has transformed man from prehistoric cave dwellers to enlightened pioneers, probing every aspect of the natural world, trying to gain an understanding of the beauty around us.
I try to keep an open mind as much as I possibly can, and I honestly believe that human action is, at least in part, causing a warming of the world. I do not think it's catastrophic, and I'm not entirely convinced that what we are experiencing is any worse than some of the weather changes which have occurred in man's history. There is only one universal constant, change. The Earth's climate is and always will be changing. We can and will deal with it.
What really gets my goat though is people blaming anything and everything on global warming.
Please check all bad things that are caused/exacerbated by global warming:
- Droughts...CHECK!
- Floods...CHECK!
- Stronger Hurricanes...CHECK!
- Weaker Hurricanes...CHECK!
- More Hurricanes...CHECK!
- Fewer Hurricanes...CHECK!
- Unmanagably catastrophic sea level rise...CHECK!
- Very modest sea level rise...CHECK!
- Polar caps irreparably melting...CHECK!
- Polar caps thickening...CHECK!
- Increased global inequality...CHECK!
- Kitten stomping...CHECK!
- Britney Hilton's inability to wear underwear...CHECK!
- Guilt for anything/everything...CHECK!
I have not read the International Panel on Climate Change Report in its entirety, but I'm not arguing against the science. I'm sure whatever analysis were used do indeed point to us being (at very least a component of) the problem. From the report: since 1850 global water level rose less than 20cm (7.9") and global mean temperature increased less than 1 deg. Celsius (less than 1.8 deg. F). If we shut everything in the world down, and emit no more greenhouse gases (everyone holding their breathe included, as that's a source of CO2), we would still increase in temperature 1 deg. C in the next 100 years (not 150 years like stated above). If we were to be draconian ni our crack down on GHG (greenhouse gas), temperatures could still increase (according to the IPCC) by 2 deg C with the top range of that scenario being at 3 deg C. Worst case looks like 4 deg. C increase with the top range being 6 deg. C (this worst case involves tripling greenhouse gas emissions in the next 50 years, seems a stretch to me). There is no definitive evidence what the increase in water level would be at best case scenario, but at worst they're estimating just over 20". So if GHG emissions triple in 50 years, in 100 years we could see the water go about about 1 and 1/3 foot. I had better go buy oceanfront property in Kansas...
So if absolute best case involves a moderate level of warming, and unbelievably high emissions may cause about double that level of warming over 100 years, I'd say we're fighting a losing battle already. It will not be possible to have everyone trade in their cars for bicycles (and semis for really big bicycles). So if, according to this report, warming is to be expected, then what problems could we be up against? I try to keep abreast of global warming news, and I especially liked this website's take on what would could be positive and what could be negative from Global Warming. Remember, though, this site is seriously dedicated to fighting Global Warming.
Top 5 bad things that could happen from Global Warming
5. Disease carrying insects will migrate further north
I'm not worried one bit from this. Other countries maybe, me no.
4. Warmer waters / more (and more intense) hurricanes
Intense hurricanes suck. On my list of worries, hurricanes and loss of life.
3. Increased probability and intensity of droughts / heat waves
Increased heat waves also suck. List of worries, food shortages from adverse weather.
2. Economic consequences of dealing with the effects
Worry: Paying out money to help those who're having problems growing food and those dealing with hurricanes.
1. Polar Ice Caps melting
Wait a second, IPCC said it's not that bad (20"+ at worst). Not a worry...
Top 5 Good things that could happen from Global Warming
5. Arctic ocean being clear year round means economic benefits of increased trade
Economic worry not all that bad, in fact there could be positives...
4. Fewer Hurricanes
What? Fewer? That's awesome. Hurricane worries off my list.
3. More Summer Fun (it'll stay hotter longer)
I don't think they're trying very hard. I guess summer's fun, no affect to worry list.
2. More Food due to better growing environments
So wait. We'll get more food. Okay, I'll scratch food shortages off my worry list.
1. Less dead people due to less intense winters
So the impact to human life will be a net positive, as fewer people will die from cold. I'll check dying off my worry list.
So people fighting Global Warming can't even get their consequences straight. Economic consequences are +/-, weather intensity could increase/decrease, we'll have more/less food, more people will die/live. What am I supposed to believe here? I guess I should just get back to my storm cellar guns cache. I really should just focus on protecting myself from holes in the ozone layer, acid rain, global population bomb / world-wide mass starvation, and let's not forget the ramifications of the crack-baby generation of the 80's.
"Wait," you say, "Don't hide out in your cellar yet. None of those things ever ended up being as bad as everyone thought..."
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